Makroökonomische Daten: 08 – 12 April 2013

Apr. 5, 2013

Minute Read

In the euro area, industrial output is estimated to have grown in February in Germany and France, as opposed to decline in Spain and Italy. As regards the euro area average, output is expected to prove sluggish, in line with indications of only a modest recovery in activity at the beginning of 2013……….……

French inflation in March is forecast to drop to 0.8%, from 1.0% in February.
Several important economic data releases are due this week in the United States; however, the focus will be on the minutes of the March FOMC meeting. In April, consumer confidence should stay close to March levels, in positive territory. March retail sales are expected to prove weak, in part also as a result of the drop in gasoline prices, following several large monthly increases. As regards prices, import prices and the PPI are estimated to have dropped moderately in March, following the correction in energy prices.

Monday 8 April
Euro area
– Germany. Industrial output is expected to have grown by 0.4% m/m in February, after stalling the previous month. Monthly surveys, and the IFO index in particular, signalled a recovery in activity at the turn of the year, that was not visible in real output data. If confirmed, the February reading would leave the quarterly trend on course for a 0.5% q/q rise in 1Q 2013, compatible with our +0.2% q/q estimate of German GDP growth in the opening months of the year.

Wednesday 10 April
Euro area
– France. Industrial output is estimated to have risen by 0.5% m/m in February from -1.2% m/m in January. Manufacturing output should be up by only 0.2% m/m, after plunging by -1.4% m/m the previous month. The indications provided by the INSEE survey pointed to only a modest recovery in manufacturing in the opening weeks of 2013. If confirmed, the February rate would leave industrial output on course for a -0.5% q/q decline in March, vs. -1.9% q/q in December.
– Spain. Industrial output is expected to come in lower by -5.7% y/y, after contracting by -5.6% y/y in January. The PMI and EU Commission surveys signalled a slowdown in productive activity in February. According to our estimates, on a monthly basis output contracted by -0.3% m/m, flat vs. January.
– Italy. La industrial output should be down by -0.3% m/m in February, after rising unexpectedly by 0.8% m/m in January. Adjusted by workdays, output is expected to drop by -7.2% y/y from -3.6% y/y the previous month. If confirmed, the February reading would leave output on course for a -0.1% q/q slowdown in activity in March, from -2.2% q/q. Monthly surveys between the end of 2012 and early 2013 signalled only a modest recovery in productive activity.

United States
– The Fed will publish the minutes of the March FOMC meeting. The minutes should shed some light on the participants’ opinions on the continuation of the asset purchase programme at its current pace. Based on Bernanke’s press conference and recent speeches, for the time being the programme is expected to continue at its present rate of purchases (85 billion dollars a month); however, consensus seems to be building in favour of a reduction of monthly purchases in the second part of the year, on condition of the labour market and final demand trends staying positive. The minutes should confirm expectations for no changes in the short term, although a gradual slowdown in the pace of increase of monetary stimulus could lie ahead.

Thursday 11 April
Euro area
– France. Consumer prices are forecast to rise by +0.6% m/m in March. Inflation is expected to slow to 0.8% y/y from 1.0% the previous month, thanks to a favourable base effect. The energy component’s contribution to the harmonised rate should be marginally negative. The trend of core prices is estimated on the rise by 0.7% m/m, placing the year-on-year rate at 0.5%, from 0.6% the previous month, a low since February 2011. French inflation has slowed sharply since last August (2.0%), following the drop in core inflation and energy prices.
However, it should start to rise back already in April, and then hover at around 1.4-1.5% in the remainder of the year.

United States
– Import prices are estimated to have dropped in March by -0.3% m/m, due to a correction in oil prices at the beginning of the month. Net of the oil component, prices should be up by 0.1% m/m. The recent strengthening of the dollar’s exchange rate should contain the rise in prices net of the oil component.

Friday 12 April
Euro area
– Euro area. Industrial output is forecast to grow by 0.2% m/m, from -0.4% m/m the previous month. Output is forecast on the decline in Spain and Italy, as opposed to increase in Germany and France. In the quarter, output is on course for semi-stagnation (+0.1% q/q), albeit picking up from -2.1% q/q in 4Q 2012.

United States
– The March PPI is forecast down by 0.2% m/m, as a result of the stabilisation of gasoline prices in the opening two months of the year, and of favourable seasonal factors. The core index should continue along the very moderate uptrend recorded over the past few months, marking a +0.1% m/m rise.
– Retail sales are forecast stable, after surging in February (+1.1% m/m). Net of transportation, sales should increase by 0.1% m/m. The estimated drop in gasoline prices in March should compress the overall index. Auto sales dropped modestly in March, returning to January levels after increasing in February. Weekly indices are mixed, with the Redbook index on the rise by 0.8% m/m, and the ICSC index by 0.1% m/m. Data on sales in the quarter are compatible
with an acceleration in consumer spending compared to 4Q 2012.
– Consumer confidence as surveyed by the University of Michigan in April (preliminary) is forecast to improve to 79, from 78.6 in March. The final March reading more than balanced the preliminary index’s decline. The survey is back on stronger levels than had been recorded since December, and seems to signal that concerns generated by fiscal policy issues (fiscal cliff at the end of 2012, automatic spending cuts for the preliminary March index) are easing.
Stronger than expected consumer spending data for January-February are a source of encouragement, and are easing concerns tied to the restrictive effects of fiscal policy on personal spending.

Appendix

Analyst Certification
The financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon specific investment banking transactions.

Important Disclosures
This research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients. Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both authorised by the Banca d’Italia, are both regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.
Opinions and estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment advisor.
This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient’s own judgement.
No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.
This document may only be reproduced or published together with the name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter. A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with conflicts of interest (“Research Policy”). The Research Policy is clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI’s web site (www.bancaimi.com).
Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or their directors and/or representatives and/or employees and/or members of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167 New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a printed document and/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the FSA.
US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above).

Valuation Methodology
Trading Ideas are based on the market’s expectations, investors’ positioning and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have already been discounted in yields and/or market spreads. They are also based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms of yields and/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.

Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event that affects the issuer’s operations. In the case of a short note, we advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A’s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on IMI’s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales representative.