Intesa Sanpaolo: 2023 could be a crucial year for NGEU and the NRRPs. In addition to the inclusion of the energy chapter in the NRRPs (the proposals have to be submitted by 30 April), this is a year in which the investment projects will have to be tangibly initiated..
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Weekly Economic Monitor – 17 February 2023
Intesa Sanpaolo – Research Department
that increases implementation risks compared to an initial phase in which passing regulations, issuing calls for tender and passively granting tax credits was sufficient.
The week’s market movers
The coming week in the euro area will see the publication of the first confidence surveys in February (ZEW, IFO, INSEE and PMI flash), which could offer further confirmation of a recovery trend in morale compared to the minimum reached last autumn. Consumer confidence surveys in France and the Eurozone may show less optimism than corporate morale. The final estimate of inflation in the euro area in January could see an upward revision after the delayed publication of the German figure (the second reading of which is expected in the week, together with the Italian figure). The second estimate of GDP for the 4th quarter of 2022 in Germany is also to be monitored.
In the United States , focus this week will be on the minutes of the February FOMC meeting, that should shed light on the discussion on the path of interest rates, and probably also on the conditions required to put the rate cycle on hold, sending a generally hawkish message. Data releases will include February PMIs, important in assessing the possibility of a reacceleration of growth in early 2023, at odds with the weak trend observed over the autumn. Existing homes sales should record their first positive change in January, after 11 consecutive declines, indicating a possible reversal of the real estate market downtrend. On the other hand, new home sales should be roughly stable. Personal income and personal spending are forecast higher at a very solid pace in January, and should be monitored closely to assess whether the slowdown observed over the autumn is effectively ending. The January PCE deflator should confirm the picture outlined by the CPI, signalling stabilisation of monthly changes, with no new declines.
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